There is a land where the provincial capital of Tosa was placed in ancient times, and where a poet who went there as governor wrote a diary. A Warring-States castle became a foothold for the unification of Shikoku, and now the prefecture’s gateway of the sky opens here. Nankoku’s numbers are the record of a plain town that went on being the center of Tosa.
The prefecture’s second city, neighboring Kochi City to the east in the central part of Kochi Prefecture. The population has fallen gently from about fifty thousand in 2000 to 46,664 in 2020. What I (Atlas) want to read here is not the sign "the town next to Kochi," but the causal thread: how the history — the provincial capital of Tosa, Ki no Tsurayuki, Kochi Ryoma Airport — is translated into today’s population and its centrality.
01 · Seeing the present Nankoku in its numbers
In the latest Population Census the population is about forty-seven thousand (46,664 in 2020). This city’s population, rather than a step from a large merger, swelled once from 49,965 in 2000 to 50,758 in 2005, then came down gently — 49,472 in 2010, 47,982 in 2015, 46,664 in 2020. It is the curve of a town on the Kochi Plain shrinking gently.
Looking inside, the position of being next to the prefectural capital shows in the numbers. The share aged 65 and over was 31.8% (2020), not too deep within Kochi Prefecture. The household-with-children share was 19.8%, and the Childcare Waitlist has been zero in recent years. The Fiscal Capacity Index was 0.59 in fiscal 2023, on the side able to cover a little under six-tenths of expenditure with its own tax revenue. The figure of a plain town that was the center of Tosa, keeping a gentle fall of population and middling finances, appears in the numbers. Why it takes this shape cannot be read without going back over the history of the provincial capital of Tosa and the gateway of the sky.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Local Government Finance Survey, Fiscal Capacity Index (MIC) / Childcare Facility Status Report (MHLW) / Real Estate Information Library (MLIT)
02 · The provincial capital of Tosa, Ki no Tsurayuki, Kochi Ryoma Airport — the history behind the numbers
Nankoku’s skeleton is set by the geography of the heart of Tosa, where the Shikoku Mountains end and the Kochi Plain opens. In ancient times, in 741, a provincial temple was built in this land, and around the same time the provincial capital of Tosa was placed here. That the center of Tosa’s government was set here is this town’s deepest foundation. It is, in historical geography, a typical instance of an ancient provincial capital deciding a town’s origin.
The footsteps of a poet, too, remain in that land of the provincial capital. In the Heian era, from 930 to 934, Ki no Tsurayuki served in Tosa as governor. What he wrote based on what he saw and heard there is "The Tosa Diary." This land, which was the center of Tosa, was also a place where letters remained from ancient times.
In the Warring-States era, this land became a foothold for hegemony over Shikoku. The Chosokabe clan made Oko Castle their base, and Chosokabe Motochika, starting from here, pacified Tosa in 1574 and in time aimed at the unification of Shikoku. The character of being the center of Tosa was inherited into the modern era too. In this land, where the Shikoku Mountains end and the plain opens, Kochi Ryoma Airport is now placed, becoming the prefecture’s gateway of sky and land. Beginning with the provincial capital of Tosa, bearing Ki no Tsurayuki’s diary, becoming the base of the Chosokabe, and holding the prefecture’s gateway of the sky — this town’s shape stands upon the history of being the heart of Tosa.
Source: Nankoku City (the history of Nankoku City) / Oko Castle (the base of the Chosokabe clan — overview) / Nankoku City (history, the provincial capital / the Chosokabe — overview)
03 · While shrinking gently, keeping the centrality of Tosa
What characterizes Nankoku is that, while the population falls gently, it keeps the centrality of being the center of Tosa. The fall stays at about three thousand over twenty years, and the aging rate, at 31.8%, is not too deep within Kochi Prefecture. One can read that this position — neighboring the prefectural capital, Kochi City, and holding the airport — has, against a backdrop of the coming and going of people and goods, made the town’s shrinking gentle. Its standing as the prefecture’s second city is still alive.
That centrality shows in the fiscal numbers too. A Fiscal Capacity Index of 0.59 is a level able to cover a little under six-tenths of expenditure with its own tax revenue, keeping the middle among the small and mid-sized cities of Kochi Prefecture. One can read that nearness to the airport and the prefectural capital gives a thickness as a place of commerce and logistics. The Childcare Waitlist, too, has stayed at zero in recent years. The plain town that was the center of Tosa now, while holding a gentle fall of population, keeps the centrality of being a gateway of the sky and its fiscal strength. The fall of population stays at about three thousand over twenty years, an aging rate of 31.8% is not too deep, and a fiscal capacity of 0.59 keeps the middle. The centrality of neighboring the prefectural capital and holding the prefecture’s airport works as an underpinning in these numbers.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Local Government Finance Survey, Fiscal Capacity Index (MIC) / Childcare Facility Status Report (MHLW)
04 · The provincial capital, the castle, the airport — all on the same plain
In Nankoku, the role of being the heart of Tosa has overlapped across the ages. One is the origin of a heart where, in ancient times, the provincial capital and provincial temple of Tosa were placed, holding the memory of a land where Ki no Tsurayuki wrote "The Tosa Diary." Another is the character of a Warring-States foothold where the Chosokabe clan, with Oko Castle as their base, aimed at the unification of Shikoku. And Kochi Ryoma Airport gives this town the face of the prefecture’s gateway of sky and land.
In this heart of Tosa, where the Shikoku Mountains end and the Kochi Plain opens, the provincial capital and provincial temple in ancient times, a castle aiming at the unification of Shikoku in the Warring-States era, and the prefecture’s gateway of the sky in the modern era have been set age by age. The ancient provincial capital where Ki no Tsurayuki wrote his diary, the Oko Castle from which the Chosokabe sought the realm, and the Ryoma Airport where airliners now land all overlap on one corner of the same Kochi Plain.
Source: Nankoku City (history, the provincial capital / the Chosokabe — overview) / Nankoku City (the history of Nankoku City)
05 · Atlas’s note — centrality inherited across the ages
Lay out Nankoku’s numbers and the middling indicators a hub city neighboring the prefectural capital keeps line up: a gentle fall of population, an aging rate of 31.8%, a household-with-children share of 19.8%, and a fiscal capacity of 0.59. But with the eye that measures the slope of decline by laying it alongside peers, what I want to hold here is the shallowness of a population fall of about three thousand over twenty years. Kochi Prefecture is one of the prefectures with the largest population declines in the nation, but Nankoku’s fall stays gentle within that. One can read that the centrality of neighboring the prefectural capital, Kochi City, and holding the airport supports this shallow fall.
The other thing I want to look at is that this centrality appears consistent from ancient times. The provincial capital of Tosa placed in ancient times, the base of the Chosokabe in the Warring-States era, and now the prefecture’s gateway of the sky — the role of being the center of Tosa has overlapped on this land across the ages. It can be read as an instance, in economic geography, of path dependence in which the advantage of a position is inherited across the ages. The provincial capital of Tosa placed in ancient times, the base of the Chosokabe in the Warring-States era, and now the prefecture’s gateway of the sky. The role of being the center of Tosa has overlapped on one corner of this plain across a thousand years. Path dependence in the terms of economic geography — the tendency for a land once made a hub to be chosen as a hub again even as the ages change — appears connected in a single line, from Ki no Tsurayuki’s provincial capital to Ryoma Airport. That Nankoku’s fall stays shallow while the whole of Kochi Prefecture loses population greatly is also on the extension of this thousand-year line.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Nankoku City (history, the provincial capital / the Chosokabe — overview) / Nankoku City (the history of Nankoku City)
Editor’s note: all figures and sources are drawn from official statistics. The prose follows Atlas’s voice, and AI (atlas-handcrafted-reverse-v1 (Daiki 2026-06-02)) handled the shaping of the text. Evaluative or predictive language (such as “a good buy” or “attractive”) is intentionally left out. Revision id: wave8i_2