Obu-shi

In the latest Population Census the population is about 93,000 (93,123 in 2020). Its course is a consistent increase. From 75,273 in 2000, through 80,262 in 2005, 85,249 in 2010 and 89,157 in 2015, to 93,123 in 2020, it gained roughly eighteen thousand in twenty years.

Looking inside the figures, its youth and strength appear. The share aged 65 and over rose from 12.4% in 2000 to 21.4% in 2020, but stays at the start of the twenties. The household-with-children share is high at 26.0% in 2020, and the Childcare Waitlist was zero in both 2024 and 2025. And the Fiscal Capacity Index was 1.12 in fiscal 2023, exceeding one. This means a level that can cover expenditure with its own tax revenue alone, with still more to spare, needing no reliance on the allocation tax from the nation. The figure of a suburban city that raised the banner of health, keeping its population increasing with a fiscal stamina markedly high, appears in the numbers. Why it takes this shape cannot be read without going back over the history of the urban goal and the location.

Obu’s skeleton is set by the land at the base of the Chita Peninsula, near a great city, and by the goal of the city raised half a century ago. The geographic layer is the location. This town lies at the base where the Chita Peninsula joins the land, surrounded by several cities, beginning with a great city adjoining it to the east. From of old, highways and railways ran through it, and in the modern age, as a commuting sphere of the great city, both residential land and plants spread. This location, near a great city and yet holding broad land, became the foundation that draws in people and industry.

And in the modern age, this town raised a clear urban goal. In a plan set in 1974, it made "a healthy city" the goal of the city, and in 1986 it made a "healthy-city declaration." Later it joined an international gathering that holds up this idea as well. Further, on a vast land straddling this town and a neighboring town, a plan arose that gathered bases for health, medicine and welfare, and it was arranged, together with green space, as "the Aichi Health Plaza." An urban goal that raised the banner of health was layered upon the location at the base of the peninsula — this town’s shape stands upon the history of the location and the urban planning that the geography of a great-city suburb held.

What characterizes Obu is that, while holding the history of an urban goal that raised the banner of health and a suburban location near a great city, it keeps increasing its population, with a fiscal stamina markedly high. From 75,273 in 2000 to 93,123 in 2020, it gained roughly eighteen thousand in twenty years. It can be read that this location, near a great city and yet holding broad land, has drawn in a child-rearing generation along with the spread of residential land. That the share aged 65 and over, at 21.4% in 2020, stays at the start of the twenties, and that the household-with-children share is high at 26.0%, are also the expression that young households keep flowing in.

And the fiscal stamina is markedly high. The Fiscal Capacity Index of 1.12 is a level that can cover expenditure with its own tax revenue alone, with still more to spare, rare in the provinces. It can be read that the cluster of plants located at the base of the peninsula, and the income of the child-rearing generation that keeps flowing in, give great thickness to the tax source. The Childcare Waitlist, too, was zero in both 2024 and 2025. The suburban city that raised the banner of health now keeps increasing its population, with a fiscal stamina markedly high. The population increased, the aging is on the held-down side, and the fiscal stamina is markedly high. The cluster of plants standing at the base of the peninsula, and the income of the child-rearing generation that keeps flowing in, thicken the tax source from both sides — the workplaces and the residents.

Obu holds several functions of its own. One is its history as the base where the Chita Peninsula joins the land, with the advantage of a location near a great city and holding broad land. Another is the urban goal of "a healthy city" raised half a century ago, leaving the character of having gathered bases for health, medicine and welfare. And "the Aichi Health Plaza," straddling this town and a neighboring town, gives this town the distinctive structure of a suburban city that sets health as its idea.

Obu is a suburban city that raised the banner of health at the base of the peninsula. From a location adjoining a great city, to a suburban city where residential land and plants spread, and to a town that raises health as an urban goal — the geography of "adjoining a great city at the base of the Chita Peninsula" drew in people and industry, called urban planning that raised the banner of health, and set the town’s skeleton. At the base of the Chita Peninsula, on this flat land adjoining a great city, residential land and plants spread, and the town raised health as an urban goal. Workplaces and homes overlap on the same ground, and young households keep flowing in.

Lay out Obu’s numbers and indicators strong in a way rare for the provinces line up: an ever-increasing population, an aging rate of 21.4%, a household-with-children share of 26.0%, and a fiscal capacity of 1.12. But what I (Atlas), with an eye used to accounts, first want to rest my eye on is that the Fiscal Capacity Index exceeds one. To exceed one is to cover expenditure with one’s own tax revenue alone, with still more to spare, needing no reliance on the allocation tax from the nation. This can be read because the cluster of plants located at the base of the peninsula, and the income of the child-rearing generation that keeps flowing in, support the tax source thickly. The virtuous circle of a suburban city, where both workplaces and residents thicken the tax source, appears in this number.

Lay out Obu’s numbers and the indicators of a suburban city with momentum line up: a consistent population increase, a held-down aging, a household-with-children share of 26.0%, and a fiscal capacity of 1.12. To my (Atlas) accountant’s eye, it can be read that the cluster of plants standing at the base of the peninsula, and the income of the child-rearing generation that keeps flowing in, thicken the tax source from both sides — the workplaces and the residents — and give rise to a fiscal capacity exceeding one.

On top of that, what will be tested going forward is, rather, time. Half a century ago, while many suburban cities increasing their population were pressed by the development of housing and roads, Obu raised "a healthy city" in its 1974 plan, made a "healthy-city declaration" in 1986, and gathered bases for health, medicine and welfare. It is a town that put into words, early on, the will of what kind of town to make of the advantage of a location that draws people. That said, even in a town whose fiscal capacity exceeds one, how long the increase in population continues lies within the flow of people of the larger metropolitan sphere as a whole. How to carry the advantage of the location, and the idea of health raised half a century ago, to the next generation. When the power to call people one day strikes a ceiling, what supports the town will be not the chance of location, but the will of "a healthy city" put into words half a century ago — the continuation of Obu’s numbers will be written from there.