Numazu-shi

In the latest Population Census the population is about 189,000 (189,386 in 2020). Over the five years from 195,633 in 2015, it fell by something over six thousand. It is one of the larger cities in the eastern part of Shizuoka Prefecture, and what we should note here is that, at about three percent over five years, it has entered a clear phase of decline.

The number of children is thinning faster than the total. Those under 15 fell by something over three thousand, from 22,389 (2015) to 19,162 (2020). In the same period the share aged 65 and over rose from 29.2% to 31.9%, already near one in three. The household-with-children share is 17.6% (2020), lower than the 22.7% of Fuji, which we see later. The Official Land Price for residential land is around 72,000 yen per m² (71,800 yen), a high level among the three cities on the shore of Suruga Bay. The Fiscal Capacity Index is 0.91 — a structure that covers expenditure with its own tax revenue to within one step of 1.0, supplementing the rest with the local allocation tax. The Childcare Waitlist is zero (2025). Why these numbers take this shape cannot be read without going back over the history of the post town, the military school and the imperial villa.

Numazu’s skeleton is drawn where two lines, the highway and the sea, cross. In the Edo era, Numazu was "Numazu-juku," the twelfth station of the fifty-three stages of the Tokaido, a node where people, goods and information came and went. The records of 1843 count three honjin, one waki-honjin and fifty-five inns. The geographical condition of a post town opening at the mouth of the Kano River is this city’s first foundation.

The second foundation was a place of learning from the end of the Edo era into the Meiji era. The former shogunal domain that moved from Edo to Sunpu (Shizuoka) opened, in 1868, the Numazu Military School within Numazu Castle. Nishi Amane took the post of first headmaster, and talented former shogunal retainers were chosen as teachers. The attached primary school established here is said to be the forerunner of the present Numazu Municipal First Primary School, and the attached hospital that of the present Numazu Municipal Hospital. It is as if the buds of modern education and medicine were grafted onto a post town.

The third foundation is the character of a seashore resort. When the Tokaido Line opened in 1889 and joined the city to Tokyo, this area, with its mild climate and a prospect of Suruga Bay before and Mount Fuji behind, came to be known as a villa district. In 1893 the Numazu Imperial Villa was built on the seashore of Yanagihara Village for the recuperation of the then crown prince, the future Emperor Taisho. In time it became a resort lined with the villas of high government officials, and Numazu Port, facing Suruga Bay, remains a landing base even now. Opened as a post town, holding modern learning in a military school, and becoming a resort joined by the railway — the conditions of the highway and the sea have drawn in different functions in each age.

What characterizes Numazu is that, while the total population falls by six thousand, the number of children falls by something over three thousand. The young generation thins more than the total does — a clear phase of descent. It appears in the numbers of living infrastructure as a somewhat steeper slope than the gentle descent of a place like Matsumoto.

The Childcare Waitlist has become zero. Here a care is needed: this "zero" must not be read as the same thing as Fuji’s zero, where supply caught up even as children increased. In Numazu, children thinned by something over three thousand in five years and the elderly share passed three in ten. In a zero waitlist in such a city, mixed in with the share added to supply is the share by which the children to be entrusted themselves decreased. It is a phase that calls for the re-reading, seen again and again in provincial cities where children thin, of "a zero that is the result of the absolute number of children thinning." The household-with-children share of 17.6% is also low among the three coastal cities. Children fall clearly, the elderly share passes three in ten, and the waitlist drops to zero — only by looking at these several currents at once is the meaning of the number zero fixed. The numbers mirror not good or bad, but the structure of the city.

Numazu holds several functions of its own. One is the urban district at the mouth of the Kano River, opened as the Tokaido post town "Numazu-juku," still keeping the character of an eastern node pierced east-to-west by highway and railway. Another is Numazu Port, facing Suruga Bay, functioning as a landing base that sends marine products nationwide.

Further, Numazu holds the history of a seashore resort taking its start from the Numazu Imperial Villa built on the seashore of Yanagihara Village. From a post town, to a place of modern learning, and further to a resort and port town joined by railway — the condition of "a land where the highway and Suruga Bay cross" has swapped different functions onto itself in each age. The post town, the military school, the imperial villa and the port were all, in the end, set upon a location wedged between the Tokaido and the sea. The post town, the military school, the imperial villa and the port have all gathered at the single point where the two lines of the Tokaido and Suruga Bay cross. What rides next upon this node, from here on, the people who live in this city will witness.