This town’s metalworking began with nail-making, as the side-work of farmers who suffered from the floods of the river. That craft changed its form with the times and has grown into an industry making, now, flatware that reaches tables around the world. The city of metalworking, through a new merger that made it one with two towns, is gently losing population. Tsubame-shi’s numbers record a town inscribed with the history of metalworking that turned from Japanese nails to flatware.
A city opening onto a plain between the Shinano River and the Nakanokuchi River, near the center of Niigata Prefecture. The population, with the old Tsubame City at 43,255 before the merger in 2005 and 81,876 in 2010 after the new merger with Yoshida Town and Bunsui Town, moved to 77,201 in 2020. What I (Atlas) want to read here is not the sign “the city of hardware,” but the causal thread: how the history — Japanese nails, flatware, and a new merger — is translated into today’s population and finances.
01 · See the present Tsubame-shi in its numbers
In the 2020 Population Census the population is 77,201. This city’s population has a large step from a new merger. In 2006 Tsubame City merged anew with Yoshida Town and Bunsui Town to become the present municipal area. The old Tsubame City was 43,480 in 2000 and 43,255 in 2005 before the merger; with the two towns added, it rose to 81,876 in 2010 — nearly doubling. From there, through 79,784 in 2015 to 77,201 in 2020, it has gently fallen since the merger.
Looking inside the figures, the shape of a city of making appears. The share aged 65 and over rose from 18.2% in 2000 to 31.2% in 2020, passing three in ten. Households with children make up a comparatively high 22.9% (2020), and the Childcare Waitlist was zero in both 2024 and 2025. The Fiscal Capacity Index was 0.60 in fiscal 2023 — a level whose own tax revenue covers about six-tenths of expenditure, in the middle range for a small or mid-sized city. The numbers show the city of metalworking gently losing population after widening its municipal area through the new merger, while holding a comparatively high share of households with children. Why it takes this shape cannot be read without tracing the history of Japanese nails and flatware.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Local Government Finance Survey, Fiscal Capacity Index (MIC) / Childcare Facility Status Report (Children and Families Agency) / Real Estate Information Library (MLIT)
02 · The side-work of Japanese nails, hammered copperware, flatware for the world — the history behind the numbers
What makes Tsubame up is the blessing and the threat of the great Shinano River, and the metalworking craft born from it. The oldest layer is Japanese nails. At the start of the Edo era, the Japanese-nail-making that the farmers of this land — who suffered again and again from the floods of the Shinano River — began as their winter side-work is said to be the origin of Tsubame’s metalworking. Nail-making, which supported the household during the season when no rice was harvested, struck the craft of handling metal into this town.
In time, by the 1700s, the craft of hammered copperware — beating copper out into vessels — and the craft of making pipes were transmitted from outside, and grew as new industries following the Japanese nail. Nails, vessels, pipes — changing the goods it handled, Tsubame’s metalworking craft was carried on. And in the modern era this town steered toward making metal flatware. Sharpening the craft of working stainless steel, it came to account for the greater part of domestic production in metal flatware centered on cutlery such as spoons and forks. Its products reach tables around the world too. The Japanese nail begun as side-work against the river’s floods, by way of vessels and pipes, turns into flatware that reaches the world — the history of metalworking called forth by the great Shinano River shapes today’s Tsubame.
Source: Tsubame City, “400 Years Facing Metal” (Japanese nails → hammered copperware → metal flatware — overview) / Tsubame City, “History” (the 2006 new merger with Yoshida Town and Bunsui Town — overview)
03 · Making holds a certain number of young households in place
What characterizes Tsubame-shi is that, while holding the history of metalworking that turned from Japanese nails to flatware, it has gently lost population after widening its municipal area through the new merger. From 81,876 in 2010, with the two towns added, to 77,201 in 2020, about five thousand were lost over ten years. As a regional city based on making, it can be read that, amid a flow of the younger generation moving to the metropolitan area and elsewhere, population has gently fallen. That the share aged 65 and over passed three in ten, at 31.2% in 2020, is one sign of this.
On the other hand, households with children make up a comparatively high 22.9% (2020), and the Childcare Waitlist was zero in both 2024 and 2025. This can be read as a sign that the work of making centered on metalworking has held a certain number of young households in place. A Fiscal Capacity Index of 0.60 is a level whose own tax revenue covers about six-tenths of expenditure — for a small or mid-sized city, the middle range. The metalworking establishments can be read as giving a certain thickness to the tax source. Population gently falls, aging passes three in ten, and yet the share of households with children holds high and fiscal stamina is in the middle range — that what falls and what remains mingle is the mark of Tsubame, the city of making, in its numbers. Pull out the decline of population alone and the thickness of young households staying in the town does not come into view.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Local Government Finance Survey, Fiscal Capacity Index (MIC) / Childcare Facility Status Report (Children and Families Agency)
04 · The trunk is metal; the branches change with each age
Tsubame holds several functions of its own. One is its history of Japanese-nail-making, begun as the side-work of farmers who suffered from the floods of the Shinano River, holding the old layer of the craft of handling metal. Another is the course of an industry that, by way of hammered copperware — beating copper out — and pipes, turned to making metal flatware, keeping the character of a craft carried on while changing the goods it handles. And the production of flatware that reaches tables around the world, accounting for the greater part of the domestic share, gives this town a structure of its own.
Tsubame is a town inscribed with metalworking that turned from Japanese nails to flatware for the world. From the side-work nail-making against the river’s floods, to copper vessels and pipes, and to flatware that reaches the world — a geography of “the great Shinano River enriching, and also threatening, the household” called forth side-work metalworking and grew it into flatware for the world. A single trunk that began with the Japanese nail has turned copperware, pipes, and flatware into branches one after another — on the bank of the Shinano River, that trunk alone has stood unbroken for four hundred years.
Source: Tsubame City, “400 Years Facing Metal” (Japanese nails → hammered copperware → metal flatware — overview) / Tsubame City, “History” (the 2006 new merger with Yoshida Town and Bunsui Town — overview)
05 · Atlas note — because it did not cling to a single product, the town remained
Lay out Tsubame’s numbers and the indicators of a regional city of making line up: a gentle population decline after the new merger, an aging rate of 31.2%, a household-with-children share of 22.9%, fiscal capacity of 0.60. Because as a certified public accountant I (Atlas) have the habit of checking the seams of the figures, what I want to note first is the fact that the step in population owes to the 2006 new merger with Yoshida Town and Bunsui Town. The 43,255 of 2005 is the number for the old Tsubame City alone, and it cannot be read by simply joining it to the 81,876 of 2010 with the two towns added. The increase to nearly double is not that population grew but the result of the municipal area widening through merger. The proper reckoning is to read the slope of decline — about five thousand lost in the ten years since the merger.
One more thing to weigh is that this town’s metalworking has “continued while changing the goods it handles.” From the side-work Japanese nail against the river’s floods, to copper vessels and pipes, and to flatware for the world, Tsubame’s metalworking has shifted the goods it handles to match each age. It can be read as having developed, without clinging to a single product, toward goods in demand, with the craft of handling metal itself as its asset. While there are towns that sank along with the decline of a single industry, Tsubame has held the trunk of the craft of metalworking and changed the branches. That trunk of craft can be read as supporting today’s comparatively high figure for households with children, 22.9%, and the capacity of a zero Childcare Waitlist. A town that entrusts its fortune to a single industry sinks when that industry tilts. Tsubame did not do so. When Japanese nails were no longer needed it turned to copper vessels; when vessels plateaued it turned to flatware — changing the goods it handled, it kept holding the craft of striking metal itself as an asset. So the comparatively high figure of 22.9% for households with children, and the capacity of a zero waitlist, remained. To keep the craft, not the product — this single move has kept the town alive. What the trunk will strike next, and whether one can entrust the future to it, lies open to the side of the reader.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Tsubame City, “400 Years Facing Metal” (Japanese nails → hammered copperware → metal flatware — overview) / Tsubame City, “History” (the 2006 new merger with Yoshida Town and Bunsui Town — overview)
Editor’s note: all figures and sources are drawn from official statistics. The prose follows Atlas’s voice, and AI (atlas-handcrafted-reverse-v1 (Daiki 2026-06-02)) handled the shaping of the text. Evaluative or predictive language (such as “a good buy” or “attractive”) is intentionally left out. Revision id: wave13_8