In the middle of the Meiji era, near this land, the machine drilling of oil succeeded for the first time. A century on, on the same shore stands one of the world’s most powerful nuclear power stations. The land of oil and nuclear power, while also passing through the trial of an earthquake, has lost population. Kashiwazaki-shi’s numbers record a shoreside town where three layers of energy overlap.
A city opening onto a plain facing the Sea of Japan in central Niigata Prefecture. The population, peaking at 94,648 in 2005, fell through 91,451 in 2010 to 81,526 in 2020. What I (Atlas) want to read here is not the sign “the nuclear town,” but the causal thread: how the history — oil, nuclear power, and an earthquake — is translated into today’s population and finances.
01 · See the present Kashiwazaki-shi in its numbers
In the 2020 Population Census the population is 81,526. Its course is a decline past a peak. From 88,418 in 2000 it rose once to 94,648 in 2005, then fell through 91,451 in 2010 and 86,833 in 2015 to 81,526 in 2020 — a curve that turned to decline around its peak near 2005. Note too that in 2005 there was a merger with neighboring towns and villages, and this peak includes that step as well.
Looking inside the figures, the shape of a regional city on the Sea of Japan side appears. The share aged 65 and over rose from 22.0% in 2000 to 33.6% in 2020, passing three in ten. Households with children make up 18.8% (2020), and the Childcare Waitlist was zero in both 2024 and 2025. The Fiscal Capacity Index was 0.65 in fiscal 2023 — a level whose own tax revenue covers about six-tenths of expenditure, in the middle range for a regional city. The numbers show the land of oil and nuclear power losing population and deepening in age while its fiscal stamina holds at the middle range. Why it takes this shape cannot be read without tracing the history that surrounds energy.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Local Government Finance Survey, Fiscal Capacity Index (MIC) / Childcare Facility Status Report (Children and Families Agency) / Real Estate Information Library (MLIT)
02 · A Meiji-era oilfield, a modern power station, the 2007 earthquake — the history behind the numbers
What makes Kashiwazaki up is the energy that lay beneath the ground and along the shore of a land facing the Sea of Japan. The oldest layer is oil. In 1891, at the Amaze oilfield near this land, the drilling of oil using American-style machinery is said to have succeeded for the first time, and this place is counted among the birthplaces of Japan’s oil industry. An oil company founded in 1888 set up a modern refinery in Kashiwazaki in 1899. An industry that dug oil out from underground supported the modern Kashiwazaki.
And in the present, a nuclear power station stands on this shore. The Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station is sited across Kashiwazaki City and a neighboring village, holds several reactors, and boasts an output among the largest in the world. But this land also passed through the trial of an earthquake. In the 2007 earthquake many lives were lost in the city, a great number of buildings were damaged, and the reactors in operation were all shut down in an emergency. To dig oil from underground, to hold a nuclear power station on the shore, and to pass through an earthquake — the history of energy and disaster called forth by a geography facing the Sea of Japan shapes today’s Kashiwazaki.
Source: Amaze Oilfield (the 1891 success of machine drilling, the birth of the oil industry — overview) / Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station (TEPCO, seven reactors — overview) / The 2007 Chuetsu-oki Earthquake and Kashiwazaki City’s response (Cabinet Office, Disaster Management)
03 · People fall, and the tax source stays in the middle range
What characterizes Kashiwazaki-shi is that, while holding the energy history of oil and nuclear power, it has lost population and deepened in age since a peak around 2005. From 94,648 in 2005 to 81,526 in 2020, about thirteen thousand were lost over fifteen years. In a land in the central Sea of Japan side, at a distance from Niigata City, a flow of the younger generation moving to the cities has continued, and the decline of population and the deepening of aging can be read as advancing. That the share aged 65 and over passed three in ten, at 33.6% in 2020, is one sign of this.
On the other hand, fiscal stamina holds at the middle range. A Fiscal Capacity Index of 0.65 is a level whose own tax revenue covers about six-tenths of expenditure — for a regional city, the middle range. The siting of energy-related facilities, the nuclear power station foremost among them, can be read as giving thickness to the tax source through fixed-asset tax and the like. The Childcare Waitlist was zero in both 2024 and 2025, and the capacity against demand is held. Population falls past its peak, aging passes three in ten, and yet fiscal stamina holds at the middle range — that what falls and what is held diverge is the mark of Kashiwazaki, the land of energy, in its numbers. Trace the population curve alone and this town’s stamina is mismeasured.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Local Government Finance Survey, Fiscal Capacity Index (MIC) / Childcare Facility Status Report (Children and Families Agency)
04 · The benefit of energy and disaster share the same land
Kashiwazaki holds several functions of its own. One is its history as a wing of the birth of the oil industry — in 1891 machine drilling succeeded at a nearby oilfield, and a refinery too was set up — holding an old layer that dug energy out from underground. Another is the siting of the Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station, boasting an output among the largest in the world, which keeps the character of a modern energy hub. And the memory of the 2007 earthquake inscribes upon this town the structure proper to a land of energy: disaster.
Kashiwazaki is a town where three layers surrounding energy overlap. From a modern town that dug out oil, to a present-day town holding a nuclear power station, to a town that passed through an earthquake — a geography of “facing the Sea of Japan, holding energy beneath the ground and along the shore” called forth oil, called forth nuclear power, and brought along the trial of an earthquake too. A Meiji-era oilfield, a modern power station, the tremor of 2007 — to dig out, to generate, and to be broken: events surrounding energy alone have gathered on this shore.
Source: Amaze Oilfield (the 1891 success of machine drilling, the birth of the oil industry — overview) / Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station (TEPCO, seven reactors — overview) / The 2007 Chuetsu-oki Earthquake and Kashiwazaki City’s response (Cabinet Office, Disaster Management)
05 · Atlas note — the number of residents and the tax source that supports the town draw separate curves
Lay out Kashiwazaki’s numbers and the indicators of a Sea of Japan–side regional city line up: a population decline past its peak, an aging rate of 33.6%, a household-with-children share of 18.8%, fiscal capacity of 0.65. Because as a certified public accountant I (Atlas) have the disposition to peer behind the figures, what I want to stop over here is the structure that supports that middle-range level of fiscal capacity, 0.65. That fiscal capacity holds at the middle range even as population falls this much can be read as coming from the fact that the siting of energy-related facilities, the nuclear power station foremost, supports the tax source through fixed-asset tax and the like, apart from the number of residents. The number of residents and the tax source that supports the town do not necessarily draw the same curve — that splitting, observed in common across towns holding heavy-chemical industry or power stations, applies to Kashiwazaki’s numbers too.
One more thing to weigh is that this town overlaps its “three layers of energy” on the same land: Meiji-era oil, present-day nuclear power, and the disaster of an earthquake. The energy beneath the ground and along the shore brings the town its tax source and employment, while it cannot be cut off from the land’s condition of earthquakes. That the reactors were all shut down in an emergency in the 2007 earthquake shows that a land where an energy hub stands is at the same time a land that holds the risk of disaster. Benefit and risk share the same geography. In this town, where fiscal capacity holds at 0.65 even after thirteen thousand people have left, the number of residents and the tax source that supports the town draw separate curves from the start. For that very reason, whether to take on or to turn away the tax source and the disaster risk bound together with it — gazing at the rise and fall of population yields no answer. What to fear, and what to take — that order of priority alone decides the worth of setting down on this shore.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Kashiwazaki-Kariwa Nuclear Power Station (TEPCO, seven reactors — overview) / Amaze Oilfield (the 1891 success of machine drilling, the birth of the oil industry — overview) / The 2007 Chuetsu-oki Earthquake and Kashiwazaki City’s response (Cabinet Office, Disaster Management)
Editor’s note: all figures and sources are drawn from official statistics. The prose follows Atlas’s voice, and AI (atlas-handcrafted-reverse-v1 (Daiki 2026-06-02)) handled the shaping of the text. Evaluative or predictive language (such as “a good buy” or “attractive”) is intentionally left out. Revision id: wave12_6