The first place where Japan opened to the world lost a tenth of its people in twenty years. The numbers of Yokosuka — where Perry arrived in his black ships and which later became the country’s largest naval port — are the record of how a town that prospered carrying a national role took on the shrinking of that role.
A city on the Miura Peninsula where Perry came ashore at Uraga, where an ironworks and a shipyard were built at the end of the Edo period, and which in time became the country’s largest naval-port city. The population fell from about 430,000 in 2000 to about 390,000 in 2020, down about 9% in twenty years. What I (Atlas) want to read here is not a verdict that it is “in decline,” but the causal thread: how the origins — the opening of the country, shipbuilding, the naval port — and the constraint of mountainous terrain are translated into today’s land price, aging rate and number of children.
01 · Measuring Yokosuka’s present standing in its numbers
In the most recent Population Census the population is about 390,000 (388,078 in 2020). From 428,645 in 2000 it fell by some 40,000, about 9%, over twenty years. In the same twenty years in which Chiyoda-ku doubled its people and Kawagoe edged up, Yokosuka instead lost them.
The drop in the number of children is larger still. Those under 15 fell from 56,940 (2000) to 40,747 (2020), some 16,000 fewer. Over the same period the share aged 65 and over rose from 17.4% to 32.1%, so roughly one resident in three is now elderly. The residential land price is in the 113,000-yen-per-m² range (2026), and the Fiscal Capacity Index is 0.75 (FY2023), a somewhat low ratio of own tax revenue for a Kanagawa city. Taxable income per taxpayer moved nearly flat, from 187,000 yen (in thousands, 2000) to 190,000 yen (in thousands, FY2023). Why these figures take this shape cannot be read without going back to the national role this town carried and the terrain of the Miura Peninsula.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Real Estate Information Library (MLIT) / Local Government Finance Survey (MIC) / Survey of Municipal Taxation (MIC)
02 · The opening of the country, shipbuilding, the naval port — the origins behind the numbers
Yokosuka’s town was made by taking on a national role. In 1853 Perry’s black-ship fleet arrived off Uraga, making this the first stage of Japan’s opening. Out of the need for coastal defense, the shogunate invited the French engineer Verny and, from 1865, began building the Yokosuka Ironworks (shipyard). Japan’s first stone dry dock was built here, and Yokosuka became the starting point of modern shipbuilding. What economic geography calls “dependence on a single large national function” was this town’s first foundation.
From the Meiji era on, Yokosuka was developed as a naval base; a town of about 63,000 at the time it became a city in 1907 swelled rapidly into the country’s largest naval-port city. Shipbuilding and the navy made jobs, and the town was bound tightly to that one point. But the end of the war in 1945 took away the naval port — the very base of the city’s founding — all at once. The former military property was requisitioned by the occupying forces, and the town stood at a grave crossroads.
After the war, part of the former naval port was carried over as bases for the U.S. Navy and the Maritime Self-Defense Force, and the shipbuilding technology turned toward private industry. Yet the mountainous terrain of the Miura Peninsula makes blocks of residential or factory land hard to create, and is ill-suited to receiving a large population. A town swollen by a national role walks its twenty-year population decline within a double constraint: that role shrinking, and the terrain blocking expansion.
Source: Yokosuka City (the Yokosuka Ironworks and Verny) / Yokosuka City (the city’s history and the present state of the bases) / Yokosuka City (overview of history and geography)
03 · For children to decrease is for schools to decrease
The population decline surfaces as a number of pieces of living infrastructure. Elementary schools in the city fell from 49 in 2000 to 47 in 2023, two having vanished. It is not the fierce consolidation common to depopulating regional cities, but the school count edges slowly down, the opposite way from a town heading toward maintenance and expansion such as Kawagoe or Chiyoda. When children fall by 16,000, the school network thins to match in time.
The childcare waitlist fell from 6 children (2024) to 3 (2025). This movement toward zero owes more to the absolute number of children falling and capacity gaining slack than to a rise in childcare supply. The fall in the waitlist should not be shorted to “improved ease of raising children”; it needs reading together with the population dynamics that “the number of children itself is thinning.” The numbers are a mirror that reflects structure, not good or bad.
Source: School Basic Survey (MEXT) / Childcare Facility Status Report (Children and Families Agency) / Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC)
04 · The naval port and the Core City
Yokosuka keeps functions of its own. The former naval port is now known as the harbor holding the U.S. Navy’s Yokosuka base (home of the Seventh Fleet) and the Maritime Self-Defense Force’s Yokosuka base (Self-Defense Fleet headquarters), still carrying a national security function. The Keikyu line (opened 1930) and the JR Yokosuka Line (opened from Ofuna in 1889) run through the town, linking it toward the center.
And in 2001 Yokosuka became a Core City, the city coming to hold prefecture-level administrative powers of its own. In tourism, the “naval-port cruise” that brings you close to MSDF and U.S. Navy vessels from the water is a sight found nowhere else. From the place where the country opened, to a shipbuilding town, to the country’s largest naval port, and on to a town of bases and Core-City status — the nature of “a port that takes on a national role” has changed the function it carries era by era. Even as the content of the role shifted from shipbuilding to defense, the nature of being a port bearing a national function has remained. The ironworks dock, the home port of the Seventh Fleet, and the naval-port sightseeing boat all rest, across the eras, on the same “port that takes on a national role.”
Source: Yokosuka City (the city’s history and the present state of the bases) / Yokosuka City (overview of history and geography)
05 · Atlas note — the stock that supported 430,000 remains in a town of 390,000
Lay out Yokosuka’s numbers and the indicators of a shrinking phase line up: population down, children down, the aging rate above thirty percent. To my (Atlas) eye, having watched the weight of fixed assets as a certified public accountant, this also reads as “a town where the infrastructure that once supported a peak of 430,000 — bases, harbor, railways, the school network, Core-City administrative powers — remains in a present of 390,000.” Because the town swelled with a national role, the stock does not shrink as fast as the people.
The bases, harbor, railways, school network and Core-City powers that supported a peak of 430,000 remain in a town shrunk to 390,000. Whether you read that as the margin of “infrastructure generous for the population,” or as the burden of “fixed costs to be carried by a shrinking population,” divides by how many years one means to live in this town. I have laid out how the origins of shipbuilding and the naval port shaped today’s figures. The calculation that follows passes to the person who holds the Keikyu and Yokosuka Line timetables and knows the monthly outgoings.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Yokosuka City (the city’s history and the present state of the bases) / Yokosuka City (overview of history and geography)
Editor’s note: all figures and sources are drawn from official statistics. The prose follows Atlas’s voice, and AI (atlas-handcrafted-reverse-v1 (Daiki 2026-05-29)) handled the shaping of the text. Evaluative or predictive language (such as “a good buy” or “attractive”) is intentionally left out. Revision id: wave2_cc