Tama-shi

In the latest Population Census the population is about 147,000 (146,951 in 2020). From 145,862 in 2000, there has been almost no rise or fall, and a flat trend has continued over twenty years.

What first draws the eye here is the speed of aging proceeding behind the flatness. The share aged 65 and over rose from 11.1% in 2000 to 29.0% in 2020 — nearly eighteen points over twenty years. It is a strikingly steep rise even nationwide. Those under 15 fell from 18,868 to 16,577, more than two thousand. The household-with-children share is 18.0% (2020). The elementary schools, which numbered twenty-one to twenty-two in the 2000s, decreased step by step with the decrease of children and have run at eighteen in recent years. The Childcare Waitlist is in single digits in recent years, and the Fiscal Capacity Index was 1.12 in fiscal 2023, exceeding one, covering expenditure with its own tax revenue. The figure of a town where only the inside of the ages moved at a stroke, even though the total population does not move, shows in the numbers. Why only the inside moves this fast does not come out without going back to the making of a new town built all at once by developing the hills.

Tama’s skeleton is set, not on a town gathered naturally, but on a town made by plan. In 1965, to relieve the severe housing shortage brought by Tokyo’s ever-rising population and to prevent disorderly development, a plan was decided to develop the Tama Hills and make a large-scale residential area. This is Tama New Town, spanning four cities — Inagi, Tama, Hachioji, and Machida — over about three thousand hectares, of one of Japan’s largest scales.

And on March 26, 1971, move-in began in the Suwa and Nagayama districts. On the developed ground carved out of the hills, a bundled number of housing complexes was supplied at once, and into them young households who could not find homes in the city center moved at nearly the same time. The railway followed, and in 1974 the Odakyu and Keio Nagayama Stations opened in succession, and commercial facilities opened in front of the stations. The plan came first, and people flowed in all at once — this is this town’s making.

But that nearly the same generation moved in at nearly the same time brought one consequence half a century later. The generation that first moved in kept on living in the town and aged all at once. Even with the total population flat, only the inside of the ages rises rapidly — the so-called “old-new-town-ification.” At the same time, a large-scale regeneration movement, rebuilding the old five-story housing complexes into high-rise residential blocks, also proceeds. Made by plan, moved into all at once, and growing old all at once — this town’s numbers stand upon the history of a new town.

What characterizes Tama-shi is that, even though the total population hardly changes, the aging rate rose nearly eighteen points over twenty years. This is the form peculiar to a planned city where, with no great inflow or outflow, the generation that moved in all at once ages in place. The actual number of children fell by more than two thousand, but rather than an abrupt shrinking it is a gentle thinning after the children of the move-in generation became independent and left the town.

The figures of living infrastructure mirror this all-at-once-ness. The elementary schools, which numbered twenty-one to twenty-two when the children of the move-in generation were many, decreased step by step as those children left the nest, and have run at eighteen in recent years. It is a new-town-like way for the school network to move — children who increased all at once decreased all at once. The Childcare Waitlist stays in single digits, and a Fiscal Capacity Index of 1.12 shows a degree of self-standing that covers expenditure with its own tax revenue. The same generation enters all at once at the same time, and that generation ages all at once in place. Looking only at a single number, the total population, this all-at-once aging proceeding inside cannot be grasped.

What characterizes Tama-shi is that, even though the total population hardly changes, the aging rate rose nearly eighteen points over twenty years. This is the form peculiar to a planned city where, with no great inflow or outflow, the generation that moved in all at once ages in place. The actual number of children fell by more than two thousand, but rather than an abrupt shrinking it is a gentle thinning after the children of the move-in generation became independent and left the town.

The figures of living infrastructure mirror this all-at-once-ness. The elementary schools, which numbered twenty-one to twenty-two when the children of the move-in generation were many, decreased step by step as those children left the nest, and have run at eighteen in recent years. It is a new-town-like way for the school network to move — children who increased all at once decreased all at once. The Childcare Waitlist stays in single digits, and a Fiscal Capacity Index of 1.12 shows a degree of self-standing that covers expenditure with its own tax revenue. The same generation enters all at once at the same time, and that generation ages all at once in place. Gazing only at the single total of one hundred forty-seven thousand, the most essential movement of this town — that the same generation grows old together inside it — is hidden whole.