A waterway to carry water to Edo became, more than three hundred years later, a walking path that circles the town. Along that waterway, fields were opened, and after the war housing complexes and factories lined up. Kodaira-shi’s numbers are the record of a suburban residential area grown upon the line a single aqueduct drew.
A residential city opening on the Musashino plateau of little relief, in northern Tama, Tokyo. The population grew steadily over twenty years, from about 179,000 in 2000 to about 199,000 in 2020. What I (Atlas) want to read here is not a vague “livability,” but the causal thread: how the history — the Tamagawa Josui, new-field development, and the suburb — is translated into today’s number of children and the degree of fiscal self-standing.
01 · Measuring the present of Kodaira-shi by its numbers
In the latest Population Census the population is about 199,000 (198,739 in 2020). From 178,623 in 2000, it gained roughly twenty thousand over twenty years and still keeps a gentle rising trend.
What I want to note here is that the number of children has not crumbled. Those under 15 went from 24,420 in 2000 to 25,072 in 2020 — held nearly steady over twenty years. Among the many cities where children greatly thin over a twenty-year unit, this is a rarely stable form. In the same span, the share aged 65 and over rose from 14.4% to 22.7%, but compared with cities nationwide it is at a gentle level. The household-with-children share is 20.0% (2020). The elementary schools have stayed nearly unmoved at twenty-one for more than twenty years, the Childcare Waitlist is zero in recent years, and the Fiscal Capacity Index was 0.92 in fiscal 2023. The figure of a suburban city of high self-standing, covering about nine-tenths of expenditure with its own tax revenue, shows in the numbers. Why children do not thin even after twenty years — the answer does not come out without going back to a single line, the Tamagawa Josui, dug to carry water to Edo.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Local Government Finance Survey (MIC) / Childcare Facility Status Report (Children and Families Agency)
02 · The Tamagawa Josui, new fields, the suburb — the history behind the numbers
Kodaira’s skeleton is set, first, by a single artificial waterway. Around the Joo era (1653–54), to carry the water of the Tama River to Edo, whose population had surged, the Tamagawa Josui was excavated, running about forty-three kilometers from Hamura to Yotsuya Okido. This waterway flows east to west over the Musashino plateau, piercing nearly the center of the present Kodaira city area. Not a natural river, but a line drawn to send water to Edo, became this town’s foundation.
Along that waterway, fields were opened. The Tamagawa Josui and the irrigation channels branching from it supplied water, and the wilds of Musashino were opened as new fields. Early-modern Kodaira was a tract of dry-field farming thus opened, and a rural scene of settlements lined thinly along the channels long continued. The waterway came first, and people and fields were drawn to it — this is this town’s starting point.
What greatly changed the town’s character was the postwar period of high growth. As a receiver for the severe housing shortage of the city-center districts, the construction of metropolitan housing and housing complexes advanced on this plateau of little relief, and private housing-land development spread as well. Around the same time, factories of firms such as Bridgestone and Hitachi sited themselves, and both the place to live and the place to work moved to the suburb. Kodaira, which had been rural, thus changed its form into a residential city in the commuting zone to the twenty-three wards. Beginning with a waterway sending water to Edo, with fields opened along the channels, and after the war with housing complexes and factories lined up — this town’s form stands upon the artificial line of the Tamagawa Josui.
Source: The Tamagawa Josui (excavation; history — overview) / Kodaira City (history; the Tamagawa Josui; industry — overview) / Kodaira City (the Kodaira Green Road)
03 · A suburb that holds its children — a result
What characterizes Kodaira-shi is that, while the population gained roughly twenty thousand over twenty years, the number of children has not crumbled. Those under 15 went from 24,420 in 2000 to 25,072 in 2020 — held nearly steady over twenty years. Among the many cities where children greatly thin over a twenty-year unit, this is a rarely stable form. It can be read as an expression of the housing complexes and residential land of the postwar period spreading on the Musashino plateau of little relief, and households raising children staying in a certain measure.
In the same span, the share aged 65 and over rose from 14.4% to 22.7%, but compared with cities nationwide it is at a gentle level. The elementary schools have stayed nearly unmoved at twenty-one for more than twenty years, and the Childcare Waitlist is zero in recent years. A Fiscal Capacity Index of 0.92 is the level of a suburban city of high self-standing, covering about nine-tenths of expenditure with its own tax revenue. The total population gained twenty thousand, the number of children is held nearly steady, and aging proceeds gently. Over the time of twenty years, while population rises and aging proceeds, only the number of children has stayed put without crumbling.
Source: School Basic Survey (MEXT) / Childcare Facility Status Report (Children and Families Agency) / Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Local Government Finance Survey (MIC)
04 · The line a single aqueduct drew
Kodaira, as a town opening on the Musashino plateau of little relief, holds several functions of its own. One is the Tamagawa Josui piercing the city area east to west; the waterway drawn to send water to Edo is now, linking the Tamagawa Josui green path and the Nobidome irrigation channel, the “Kodaira Green Road” — a walking path of water and green that circles the city over about twenty-one kilometers. Another is the housing complexes and housing land lined up in the postwar suburbanization, and the factories of Bridgestone, Hitachi, and others, which support its character as a suburban city holding both the place to live and the place to work.
Kodaira is a suburban residential area grown upon the line a single aqueduct drew. From the Tamagawa Josui carrying water to Edo, to the new fields along that waterway, the postwar housing complexes and factories, and the channel that became a green walking path — the landform of “the Musashino plateau of little relief” drew the waterway, opened the new fields, and spread the housing complexes. A single waterway dug to send water to Edo changed its form, more than three hundred years later, into a path that circles the city. Along that line, the new fields, the housing complexes, the factories, and the present residential land all line up. The channel drawn as Edo’s aqueduct nourished farming, nourished dwelling, and now moistens the feet of those who walk.
05 · Atlas note — the numbers of a suburb whose number of children does not crumble
Lay out Kodaira’s numbers and indicators of a suburban city of high self-standing line up: population increase, children held steady, gentle aging, fiscal capacity 0.92, a zero waitlist. What I (Atlas), who read numbers on the axis of time, want to read here is the meaning of the stability — that the number of children was held nearly steady over the time of twenty years. Many suburban residential areas, where a generation moved in all at once, age all at once, and the number of children greatly thins over twenty years. That this is not happening in Kodaira can be read as an expression of households raising children keeping on entering, generation replacing generation, the residential area that spread along the Tamagawa Josui. The high self-standing of fiscal capacity 0.92 too is the consequence of the income of the households living in that stable residential area supporting the tax source.
The Tamagawa Josui that carried water to Edo, and the new fields, housing complexes, and residential land that spread along that line, are layered within one city. Whether to rely on this as “a suburban city of high self-standing whose number of children does not crumble,” or to discount it as “a residential area somewhat far from the city center,” depends on where the priorities of living lie. A single aqueduct called in, in order, new fields, housing complexes, and residential land, and upon that the number of children has not crumbled. That far, the numbers can trace. The rest — whether days of raising a child at this distance from the city center suit your own living — can be measured only by one who can picture, concretely, the morning route to school.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Kodaira City (history; the Tamagawa Josui; industry — overview) / The Tamagawa Josui (excavation; history — overview)
Editor’s note: all figures and sources are drawn from official statistics. The prose follows Atlas’s voice, and AI (atlas-handcrafted-reverse-v1 (Daiki 2026-05-29)) handled the shaping of the text. Evaluative or predictive language (such as “a good buy” or “attractive”) is intentionally left out. Revision id: wave8c_f