This town has the only castle in Hokkaido. In the Edo period it was the castle town of a domain that governed the northern sea — the center of politics and culture. Now, around that castle, cherry trees among the finest in the country bloom. But this town, once a castle town, lost more than four-tenths of its population in twenty years, and more than half of its residents became elderly. Without knowing how a castle town that was the center of Hokkaido’s history became one of the towns that shrank the most, this town’s numbers cannot be read. Matsumae-cho’s numbers record a town inscribed with the history of how the only castle town in Hokkaido shrank the most.
A town in the Donan region of Hokkaido, opening out at the southwestern tip of the Oshima Peninsula. It is the southernmost point of Hokkaido and, under the influence of the Tsushima Current, the mildest place in the prefecture. In the Edo period it was the castle town of a domain that governed the northern sea — the only castle town in Hokkaido. Around the castle is now a cherry-blossom site among the finest in the country. But the population fell from 11,108 in 2000 to 6,260 in 2020 — by more than four-tenths in twenty years — and the aging rate passed five-tenths. What I (Atlas) want to read here is not the sign "the cherry-blossom castle town," but the causal thread: how the history of the only castle town in Hokkaido shrinking the most is translated into today’s population.
01 · See the present Matsumae-cho in its numbers
In the latest Population Census the population is about six thousand three hundred (6,260 in 2020). From 11,108 in 2000 it fell by more than four-tenths in twenty years, and the slope of decline is conspicuously steep even within the prefecture. The share aged 65 and over rose from 26.7% in 2000 to 52.2% in 2020 — more than half of the residents became elderly. The share of households with children was 8.8% in 2020, among the lowest in the country.
The Official Land Price of residential land is about 7,200 yen per m². The Fiscal Capacity Index was 0.18 in fiscal 2023 — its own tax revenue covers a little under two-tenths of expenditure. The crude birth rate was 3.35 in 2020, low. A town with the foremost history in the prefecture — the southernmost castle town of Hokkaido — is now one of the towns that has shrunk the most in the prefecture. Why this gap arose cannot be read without tracing the castle town’s history and geography.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Official Land Price / Prefectural Land Price Survey (MLIT) / Local Government Finance Survey, Fiscal Capacity Index (MIC)
02 · A domain that governed the northern sea, the only castle town, the southernmost position — the history behind the numbers
What sets Matsumae down is its starting point as the castle town of a domain that governed the northern sea, its character as the only castle in Hokkaido, and its position at the southwestern tip of the Oshima Peninsula. The starting layer is the domain. In the Edo period, when most of Hokkaido still lay outside the society of the Wajin, a domain based in this town governed, in its single hand, the trade of the northern sea. A castle of the domain was built, politics and culture gathered in its castle town, and the only castle town in Hokkaido was formed. The wealth of the northern sea brought this southernmost town its first prosperity.
But the premise of that prosperity broke down with the eras. From the Meiji era on, the pioneering of Hokkaido and the center of gravity of its population moved toward more inland, more northern cities. The advantage of position as the castle town of a domain that governed the northern sea’s trade turned, in modern Hokkaido, into distance from the center. The southwestern tip of the Oshima Peninsula, while mildest in the prefecture by the blessing of the Tsushima Current, fell away from the flows of modern transport and population. The castle was once torn down in the Meiji era; the keep, later rebuilt, is now a museum. A castle town that was the center of the prefecture in the Edo world was pushed to the edge in modern times — Matsumae’s present is placed atop that gap.
Source: Matsumae Town, charms and history (in the Edo period the castle town of the Matsumae domain — the only castle town in Hokkaido; the castle town of Fukuyama Castle, also Matsumae Castle; the southernmost point of Hokkaido and the mildest place in the prefecture) / Matsumae Town (Hokkaido), chronicle and cherry blossoms (Matsumae Park, one of Japan’s 100 best cherry-blossom sites; 10,000 cherry trees of 250 varieties; population decline — overview)
03 · What it means for a population to fall four-tenths and half the residents to become elderly
This town’s slope of decline is conspicuously steep even within the prefecture. For a population to fall by more than four-tenths in twenty years, and for the share aged 65 and over to pass five-tenths, means that more than half of the people living in the town became elderly. The share of households with children was 8.8% in 2020, low even nationally, mirroring the difficulty of young generations staying in this town. Towns where the thickness of a castle town’s history and the thinness of the present population structure diverge this greatly are countable on the fingers, even within the prefecture.
The number of elementary schools held at three from 2019 through 2023, but the number of pupils kept falling, from 168 in 2019 to 137 in 2023. The childcare capacity was 110 in both 2024 and 2025, and applicants fell from 59 in 2024 to 50 in 2025. Even in a town where cherry trees among the finest in the country bloom around the castle, the number of households raising children there keeps thinning by a logic separate from the cherry-blossom crowds. Having been the center of history, and people continuing to live there now, are measured by different indicators.
Source: School Basic Survey (MEXT, via e-Stat System of Social and Demographic Statistics) / Childcare Facility Status Report (Children and Families Agency) / Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC)
04 · A cherry-blossom castle town where the Edo center turned into the modern edge
In Matsumae, two histories overlap. One is its starting point: as the castle town of a domain that governed the northern sea, holding the only castle in Hokkaido and walking the foremost history in the prefecture. The other is its character of position at the southwestern tip of the Oshima Peninsula — mildest in the prefecture, yet fallen away from the flows of modern transport and population. That the advantage of position of a domain that governed the northern sea’s trade turned, in modern Hokkaido, into distance from the center is what produced this town’s gap.
Around the castle now bloom cherry trees of many varieties, making it a cherry-blossom site among the finest in the country. The cherry trees bloom atop the thickness of culture of this town that was a castle town, and in spring they gather people from outside the town. But the number of people who come to see the cherry blossoms in spring, and the number who keep living in this town where more than half the residents became elderly, move by wholly separate logics.
Source: Matsumae Town, charms and history (in the Edo period the castle town of the Matsumae domain — the only castle town in Hokkaido; the castle town of Fukuyama Castle, also Matsumae Castle; the southernmost point of Hokkaido and the mildest place in the prefecture) / Matsumae Town (Hokkaido), chronicle and cherry blossoms (Matsumae Park, one of Japan’s 100 best cherry-blossom sites; 10,000 cherry trees of 250 varieties; population decline — overview)
05 · Atlas note — having been the center of history does not promise present prosperity
Lay out Matsumae’s numbers and indicators among the harshest in the prefecture line up: a population fall of more than four-tenths, an aging rate of 52.2%, a household-with-children share of 8.8%, a land price of 7,200 yen, fiscal capacity of 0.18. But, to put it in the habit by which I (Atlas), as a certified public accountant, peer behind the numbers, what I want to read first here is the gap itself: that this town, holding the foremost thickness of history in the prefecture as "the only castle town in Hokkaido," is now one of the towns that has shrunk the most in the prefecture. In the Edo world, the castle town of a domain that governed the northern sea’s trade was the center of Hokkaido’s politics and culture. That center turned, in modern Hokkaido, into the edge — the southwestern tip of the Oshima Peninsula, fallen away from the flows of transport and population. Having been the center of history does not promise present prosperity — this town’s gap is the harsh instance.
One more thing to weigh is the point that, in this town where cherry trees among the finest in the country bloom around the castle, the share of households with children stays at 8.8%. In my view, the bustle of spring cherry blossoms and the number of households living and raising children in the town move by wholly separate logics. The cherry trees bloom atop the thickness of the castle town’s culture and gather people from outside, but those people visit in spring and depart. To hold resources worth being proud of — history and cherry blossoms — and for people to keep living there, are measured by different indicators. In spring, when the cherry blossoms fill the ground around the castle and people gather from outside, then after that wave of people has gone there remains only a quiet seaside where more than half the residents are elderly.
Source: Population Census (Statistics Bureau, MIC) / Matsumae Town, charms and history (in the Edo period the castle town of the Matsumae domain — the only castle town in Hokkaido; the castle town of Fukuyama Castle, also Matsumae Castle; the southernmost point of Hokkaido and the mildest place in the prefecture) / Matsumae Town (Hokkaido), chronicle and cherry blossoms (Matsumae Park, one of Japan’s 100 best cherry-blossom sites; 10,000 cherry trees of 250 varieties; population decline — overview)
Editor’s note: all figures and sources are drawn from official statistics. The prose follows Atlas’s voice, and AI (atlas-handcrafted-reverse-v1 (wave28-east 2026-06-04)) handled the shaping of the text. Evaluative or predictive language (such as “a good buy” or “attractive”) is intentionally left out. Revision id: w28e_08e