Ebetsu-shi

In the most recent Population Census the population is about a hundred and twenty thousand (121,056 in 2020). This city’s population shows no step-change from a large merger: from 123,877 in 2000, through 125,601 (2005), 123,722 (2010) and 120,636 (2015), to 121,056 (2020), it has held around a hundred and twenty thousand over twenty years — a curve that stayed nearly level across the same twenty years in which many regional cities lost population.

Look inside the figure and you see a town that sits next to Sapporo. The share aged 65 and over rose from 15.2% in 2000 to 30.4% in 2020, doubling over twenty years. Households with children were 18.2% in 2020, and the childcare waitlist ran at nine in 2024 and five in 2025 — not zero, but small. The Fiscal Capacity Index was 0.52 in FY2023, a mid-level for a regional city at which its own tax revenue covers about half of expenditure. A town of brick and paper, holding its population nearly steady while aging deepens abruptly — that is what the numbers show. Why it takes this shape cannot be read without going back through the origins of the tonden-hei and brick.

Ebetsu’s skeleton is set down by the geography of flat land where the Ishikari and Chitose Rivers meet, and by the settlement and industry layered there. The old layer is settlement. In 1878 (Meiji 11), tonden-hei colonists settled at Ebetsubuto, where the two rivers join, and Ebetsu Village was born. This town began as a village of tonden-hei opening the northern wilderness.

On that settled ground, the soil underfoot gave rise to an industry. This area yielded abundant Nopporo clay, well suited to brick. The river transport of the Ishikari, in addition, became the path for carrying out the product. Brickmaking began around 1891 (Meiji 24), and in 1898 (Meiji 31) a large brick factory went into operation, making Ebetsu a major brick-producing district. The geographic condition of clay underfoot was translated into the product of brick — in the terms of economic geography, a case where a natural condition gives rise to a distinctive industry.

And the river summoned another industry too. In 1908 (Meiji 41), a paper mill was founded here. Corresponding to today’s Oji F-Tex Ebetsu Mill, it is said to be the oldest paper mill in Hokkaido. Abundant water and the river’s convenience for carrying in raw timber rooted the modern industry of paper in this place. The tonden-hei opened it, clay was fired into brick, the river summoned paper — this town’s shape rests on the history of settlement and industry held by flat land where two rivers meet.

What characterizes Ebetsu is that, carrying the old industries of brick and paper, it holds its population level through the geography of sitting next to Sapporo. Over the same twenty years in which many regional cities lost population, this town held around a hundred and twenty thousand. A location within commuting range of Sapporo by rail can be read as having retained people as a place of residence for those who go out to work in Sapporo, and its character as an academic town where several universities are located as having held a certain share of the younger generation.

Meanwhile the share aged 65 and over doubled in twenty years, from 15.2% to 30.4%. The steep gradient here is that of a suburban town that gathered people during the high-growth era now meeting, all at once, the aging of the generation that moved in then. A Fiscal Capacity Index of 0.52 is a mid-level at which its own tax revenue covers about half of expenditure: you can see both sides — the taxes of residents who commute to Sapporo support a mid-level base, while the tax base from large industry is limited. The childcare waitlist runs at a few; it does not reach zero, but stays small. The total holds level, yet aging alone doubles. One indicator did not move in twenty years; the other doubled in those same twenty years. When two numbers picturing the same town point in such different directions, the single word “level” becomes heavy makeup hiding the swap underneath. The single line of total population can never reveal that swap.

Ebetsu carries several things. One is the history of brick fired from Nopporo clay, an origin in which the soil underfoot gave rise to a major producing district. Another is its character, retained in the paper mill founded in 1908 and said to be the oldest in Hokkaido, of a modern industry summoned by the water and river transport of the Ishikari. And the geography of sitting next to Sapporo gives this town its distinctive structure as both a place of residence for those who commute to the metropolis and an academic town where universities gather.

From a village opened by tonden-hei, to a town of brick and paper industry, to an academic town beside Sapporo. The flat land where the two rivers meet summoned industry through the clay underfoot and the river transport, and summoned residence and universities through its nearness to Sapporo. The old industry supports the town’s origin, the neighboring metropolis its present population. Ebetsu stands as a town where two times coexist on the same ground.