Wakkanai-shi

In the most recent Population Census the population is about 34,000 (33,563 in 2020). From 43,774 in 2000, through 41,592 in 2005, 39,595 in 2010 and 36,380 in 2015, it became 33,563 in 2020 — losing more than ten thousand in twenty years.

Look at the contents and the figure of a northernmost city that prospered on the northern sea’s fishing appears. The share aged 65 and over rose from 17.3% in 2000 to 32.8% in 2020, climbing about fifteen points in twenty years, passing a third. The household-with-children rate is 15.7% (2020). The childcare waitlist was zero in both 2024 and 2025. The Fiscal Capacity Index was 0.39 in fiscal 2023 — a level where own tax revenue does not reach four-tenths of expenditure, leaning heavily on the local allocation tax. The figure of a northernmost city that prospered on the ferry crossing the strait and the northern sea’s fishing, reducing its population toward thirty thousand after the fishing shrank, appears in the numbers. Why this shape arises cannot be read without tracing back the origins of the strait, the ferry and the fishing.

This town’s skeleton is set by its position as the northernmost of mainland Japan facing a strait, by the ferry that crossed the strait, by the northern sea’s fishing, and by the shrinking of that fishing. The beginning layer is position. The northernmost on mainland Japan once the northern islands are set aside, this town lies about forty kilometres from the island across the strait, the closest in the country to that island. As its name — from an Ainu word meaning a creek of cold water — suggests, this far-northern land faced the border of a strait.

This position gave the town the role of crossing the sea. In the days when the southern half of the island across the water was Japanese territory, a ferry crossed from this town’s port to that island, and a long breakwater was built to transfer people and goods from train to ship. After the war this town became a base of the northern sea’s fishing, landing herring, salmon, trout, cod and crab in great numbers, and prospered as one of the country’s leading fishing towns. But when the country across the water limited fishing in distant seas to within two hundred nautical miles, the northern sea’s fishing took a heavy blow. The northernmost land, the ferry that crossed the strait, the northern sea’s fishing, and the shrinking of the distant fishery — this town’s form stands upon the origin whereby a position as the northernmost of the mainland, facing a strait, summoned the ferry and the fishing, and then bore their shrinking.

What characterizes Wakkanai-shi is that, carrying the origins of the ferry crossing the strait and the northern sea’s fishing, it has reduced its population toward thirty thousand in twenty years. From 43,774 in 2000 to 33,563 in 2020, more than ten thousand were lost in twenty years. The ferry crossing the sea changed its role after the island across the water ceased to be territory, and the northern sea’s fishing shrank greatly after the country across the water limited fishing in distant seas. As the livelihoods that depend on the sea shrank, a part of the younger generations moved toward larger cities, and the age of the town as a whole reads as having risen. That the share aged 65 and over passed a third at 32.8% in 2020 is one expression of that.

Meanwhile, the childcare waitlist was zero in both 2024 and 2025, and the household-with-children rate is 15.7% (2020). The Fiscal Capacity Index of 0.39 is a level where own tax revenue does not reach four-tenths of expenditure, showing the large reliance on the local allocation tax. The fishing port facing the northern sea, the processing that follows from it, and the livelihoods that take the northernmost position as a resource, read as propping the tax base at around four-tenths. The northernmost city of the mainland, after the fishing shrank, has reduced its population toward thirty thousand while raising the age of the town. A population around thirty thousand, aging past a third, finance not thick on tax revenue alone — these mirror, from separate angles, the consequence of a town that entrusted its livelihood to the border of a strait and the northern sea, swayed by the circumstances of the world beyond.

The origins Wakkanai carries lie in this: a position facing the border of a strait has held blessing and peril at once, on the face and the reverse. One is its position — the northernmost on mainland Japan once the northern islands are set aside, about forty kilometres from the island across the strait, the closest in the country to that island. The other is its character as a maritime gateway, where in the days the southern half of the island across the water was territory it ran a ferry to the island and built a long breakwater linking train and ship. And it carries the experience whereby, having become a base of the northern sea’s fishing after the war, that fishing shrank once distant-sea fishing was limited. A position as the northernmost of the mainland, facing a strait, drew both the role of the ferry and the livelihood of the northern sea’s fishing into this town.

From the position as the northernmost of the mainland, to the ferry that crossed the strait, to the northern sea’s fishing, and on to the shrinking of that fishing. The geography of about forty kilometres to the island across the water gave this town a ferry in the days the island’s southern half was territory, and a base of the northern fisheries after the war. The same position, facing a border, holds blessing and the peril of being tossed about by movements from outside, on its face and its reverse — Wakkanai is a town where those two sides cannot be parted.

Lay out Wakkanai’s numbers and the indicators of a northernmost city that prospered on the northern sea’s fishing line up: a population fallen near thirty thousand, an aging rate of 32.8%, a household-with-children rate of 15.7%, a fiscal capacity of 0.39. But what I (Atlas) want to read through the eye of accounting is the origin whereby this town’s livelihood was “deeply tied to the border of a strait and to the northern sea, the world outside.” The position of about forty kilometres to the island across the strait gave the town the role of a ferry in the days the island’s southern half was territory, and the livelihood of a base of the northern sea’s fishing after the war. The composition whereby a position facing a border tied the town’s livelihood into one with movements of the outside world explains this town’s map well.

The other thing I want to consider is that those movements of the outside world shrank this town’s livelihood. When the island across the water ceased to be territory, and the country across the water limited fishing in distant seas, both the ferry and the fishing this town had leaned on changed their roles outside the town’s own will. The blessing of a position facing a border, and the peril of being swayed by outside movements because of that very position, are on this town the face and reverse of a single geography. Behind the figure of a Fiscal Capacity Index of 0.39 lies the shrinking of a livelihood opened to the outside. The northernmost position does not change, but what meaning is given to that position has always been decided outside this town. What sent the ferry across, and what shrank the fishing, were the circumstances of the far shore. If so, then the population of thirty thousand and the fiscal capacity of 0.39 are not figures the town invited through idleness, but the shadow, reaching the near side, of events that occurred on the far side of the Soya strait. Behind the steadiness of being the northernmost point clings, always, the unsteadiness of having entrusted one’s livelihood to a place one cannot decide oneself.